美国这一次的经济复苏将比以往多数衰退都要慢得多，不过政府倒是能助一臂之力。
“WHITHER goest thou, America?” That question, posed by Jack Kerouac on behalf of the Beat generation half a century ago, is the biggest uncertainty hanging over the world economy.
And it reflects the foremost worry for American voters, who go to the polls for the congressional mid-term elections on November 2nd with the country’s unemployment rate stubbornly stuck at nearly one in ten.
They should prepare themselves for a long, hard ride.
“美利坚，汝欲何往？
The most wrenching recession since the 1930s ended a year ago.
But the recovery—none too powerful to begin with—slowed sharply earlier this year.
GDP grew by a feeble 1.6% at an annual pace in the second quarter, and seems to have been stuck somewhere similar since.
The housing market slumped after temporary tax incentives to buy a home expired.
So few private jobs were being created that unemployment looked more likely to rise than fall.
Fears grew over the summer that if this deceleration continued, America’s economy would slip back into recession.
”①半个世纪前，杰克·凯鲁亚克代表“垮掉的一代“曾如是发问。
The most wrenching recession since the 1930s ended a year ago.
But the recovery—none too powerful to begin with—slowed sharply earlier this year.
GDP grew by a feeble 1.6% at an annual pace in the second quarter, and seems to have been stuck somewhere similar since.
The housing market slumped after temporary tax incentives to buy a home expired.
So few private jobs were being created that unemployment looked more likely to rise than fall.
Fears grew over the summer that if this deceleration continued, America’s economy would slip back into recession.
如今，这也是笼罩这世界经济的最大的疑问，也反映了美国选民最大的忧虑。
The most wrenching recession since the 1930s ended a year ago.
But the recovery—none too powerful to begin with—slowed sharply earlier this year.
GDP grew by a feeble 1.6% at an annual pace in the second quarter, and seems to have been stuck somewhere similar since.
The housing market slumped after temporary tax incentives to buy a home expired.
So few private jobs were being created that unemployment looked more likely to rise than fall.
Fears grew over the summer that if this deceleration continued, America’s economy would slip back into recession.
11月2日国会中期选举在即，而美国的失业率至今盘踞在10%左右，挥之不去。
The most wrenching recession since the 1930s ended a year ago.
But the recovery—none too powerful to begin with—slowed sharply earlier this year.
GDP grew by a feeble 1.6% at an annual pace in the second quarter, and seems to have been stuck somewhere similar since.
The housing market slumped after temporary tax incentives to buy a home expired.
So few private jobs were being created that unemployment looked more likely to rise than fall.
Fears grew over the summer that if this deceleration continued, America’s economy would slip back into recession.
前路漫漫，道阻且远，他们理应有所准备。
The most wrenching recession since the 1930s ended a year ago.
But the recovery—none too powerful to begin with—slowed sharply earlier this year.
GDP grew by a feeble 1.6% at an annual pace in the second quarter, and seems to have been stuck somewhere similar since.
The housing market slumped after temporary tax incentives to buy a home expired.
So few private jobs were being created that unemployment looked more likely to rise than fall.
Fears grew over the summer that if this deceleration continued, America’s economy would slip back into recession.
自上世纪30年代以来最为严重的经济衰退已于一年前结束，只是经济复苏起步伊始本就不够强劲，又在今年年初骤然缓慢下来。
Fortunately, those worries now seem exaggerated.
Part of the weakness of second-quarter GDP was probably because of a temporary surge in imports from China.
The latest statistics, from reasonably good retail sales in August to falling claims for unemployment benefits, point to an economy that, though still weak, is not slumping further.
And history suggests that although nascent recoveries often wobble for a quarter or two, they rarely relapse into recession.
For now, it is most likely that America’s economy will crawl along with growth at perhaps 2.5%: above stall speed, but far too slow to make much difference to the jobless rate.
第二季度国内生产总值的年化增长率只有区区1.6%，而且似乎自此一直在此徘徊。
Fortunately, those worries now seem exaggerated.
Part of the weakness of second-quarter GDP was probably because of a temporary surge in imports from China.
The latest statistics, from reasonably good retail sales in August to falling claims for unemployment benefits, point to an economy that, though still weak, is not slumping further.
And history suggests that although nascent recoveries often wobble for a quarter or two, they rarely relapse into recession.
For now, it is most likely that America’s economy will crawl along with growth at perhaps 2.5%: above stall speed, but far too slow to make much difference to the jobless rate.
对购买住房的临时税收激励政策到期之后，房地产市场便又一蹶不振。
Fortunately, those worries now seem exaggerated.
Part of the weakness of second-quarter GDP was probably because of a temporary surge in imports from China.
The latest statistics, from reasonably good retail sales in August to falling claims for unemployment benefits, point to an economy that, though still weak, is not slumping further.
And history suggests that although nascent recoveries often wobble for a quarter or two, they rarely relapse into recession.
For now, it is most likely that America’s economy will crawl along with growth at perhaps 2.5%: above stall speed, but far too slow to make much difference to the jobless rate.
私有领域创造的就业岗位所增无几，因而失业率看来可能会不降反升。
Fortunately, those worries now seem exaggerated.
Part of the weakness of second-quarter GDP was probably because of a temporary surge in imports from China.
The latest statistics, from reasonably good retail sales in August to falling claims for unemployment benefits, point to an economy that, though still weak, is not slumping further.
And history suggests that although nascent recoveries often wobble for a quarter or two, they rarely relapse into recession.
For now, it is most likely that America’s economy will crawl along with growth at perhaps 2.5%: above stall speed, but far too slow to make much difference to the jobless rate.
整个夏天人们都在担心，忧虑倘若复苏持续放缓，美国经济极有可能再次滑进衰退的深渊。
Fortunately, those worries now seem exaggerated.
Part of the weakness of second-quarter GDP was probably because of a temporary surge in imports from China.
The latest statistics, from reasonably good retail sales in August to falling claims for unemployment benefits, point to an economy that, though still weak, is not slumping further.
And history suggests that although nascent recoveries often wobble for a quarter or two, they rarely relapse into recession.
For now, it is most likely that America’s economy will crawl along with growth at perhaps 2.5%: above stall speed, but far too slow to make much difference to the jobless rate.
所幸，这些担忧现在看来是有些杞人忧天了。
Why, given that America usually rebounds from recession, are the prospects so bleak?
That’s because most past recessions have been caused by tight monetary policy.
When policy is loosened, demand rebounds.
This recession was the result of a financial crisis.
Recoveries after financial crises are normally weak and slow as banking systems are repaired and balance-sheets rebuilt.
Typically, this period of debt reduction lasts around seven years, which means America would emerge from it in 2014.
By some measures, households are reducing their debt burdens unusually fast, but even optimistic seers do not think the process is much more than half over.
第二季度国内生产总值增长乏力，部分原因可能是美国从中国的进口暂时性激增。
Why, given that America usually rebounds from recession, are the prospects so bleak?
That’s because most past recessions have been caused by tight monetary policy.
When policy is loosened, demand rebounds.
This recession was the result of a financial crisis.
Recoveries after financial crises are normally weak and slow as banking systems are repaired and balance-sheets rebuilt.
Typically, this period of debt reduction lasts around seven years, which means America would emerge from it in 2014.
By some measures, households are reducing their debt burdens unusually fast, but even optimistic seers do not think the process is much more than half over.
最新的统计显示，8月零售额还说得过去，失业补贴申请人数有所下降，连同其他最新的数据，都表明经济虽说依然低迷，但并不是在继续下滑。
Why, given that America usually rebounds from recession, are the prospects so bleak?
That’s because most past recessions have been caused by tight monetary policy.
When policy is loosened, demand rebounds.
This recession was the result of a financial crisis.
Recoveries after financial crises are normally weak and slow as banking systems are repaired and balance-sheets rebuilt.
Typically, this period of debt reduction lasts around seven years, which means America would emerge from it in 2014.
By some measures, households are reducing their debt burdens unusually fast, but even optimistic seers do not think the process is much more than half over.
历史经验表明，经济复苏初期的一两个季度内常常波动，但极少会再次陷入衰退。
Why, given that America usually rebounds from recession, are the prospects so bleak?
That’s because most past recessions have been caused by tight monetary policy.
When policy is loosened, demand rebounds.
This recession was the result of a financial crisis.
Recoveries after financial crises are normally weak and slow as banking systems are repaired and balance-sheets rebuilt.
Typically, this period of debt reduction lasts around seven years, which means America would emerge from it in 2014.
By some measures, households are reducing their debt burdens unusually fast, but even optimistic seers do not think the process is much more than half over.
目前来看，美国的经济很可能会以2.5%左右的增速缓慢爬升，这比停滞期的增速高一些，但回升的速度远不足以带动失业率下降。
Why, given that America usually rebounds from recession, are the prospects so bleak?
That’s because most past recessions have been caused by tight monetary policy.
When policy is loosened, demand rebounds.
This recession was the result of a financial crisis.
Recoveries after financial crises are normally weak and slow as banking systems are repaired and balance-sheets rebuilt.
Typically, this period of debt reduction lasts around seven years, which means America would emerge from it in 2014.
By some measures, households are reducing their debt burdens unusually fast, but even optimistic seers do not think the process is much more than half over.
美国经济一向能从衰退中迅速反弹，为何此次的前景却如此黯淡？
Battling on the bus
这是因为，以往的衰退大多是由货币政策紧缩而引起的，一旦政策放宽，需求就会反弹。
Battling on the bus
然而这次经济衰退确实金融危机的产物。
Battling on the bus
金融危机过后，银行系统需要整顿，资产结构需要重组，因而经济复苏通常都会孱弱而恢复缓慢。
Battling on the bus
这个债务削减的阶段一般会持续七年的时间，也就是说，美国可能要到2014年才能恢复正常。
Battling on the bus
美国家庭正在采取措施清偿债务，清偿的速度也异常地快，但要说这一过程已经过了一半多，恐怕就连乐观的预言家也不会苟同。
Battling on the bus
车往何处开 两党打嘴仗
America’s biggest problem is that its politicians have yet to acknowledge that the economy is in for such a long, slow haul, let alone prepare for the consequences.
A few brave officials are beginning to sound warnings that the jobless rate is likely to “stay high”.
But the political debate is more about assigning blame for the recession than about suggesting imaginative ways to give more oomph to the recovery.
美国现在最大的问题是，政客们还不肯承认经济正堵在一条漫长而行进缓慢的复苏路上，更别说为即将遭遇的问题有所准备。
Republicans argue that Barack Obama’s shift towards “big government” explains the economy’s weakness, and that high unemployment is proof that fiscal stimulus was a bad idea.
In fact, most of the growth in government to date has been temporary and unavoidable; the longer-run growth in government is more modest, and reflects the policies of both Mr Obama and his predecessor.
And the notion that high joblessness “proves” that stimulus failed is simply wrong.
The mechanics of a financial bust suggest that without a fiscal boost the recession would have been much worse.