核能源在其中所占的相对比率预计将会减少，因为某些国家计划的核能源扩大方案将无法与全球能源需求量的总体增加量相匹配。
Nuclear energy is projected to decrease its relative share because the planned expansion of nuclear power in some countries will not match the overall increase in global energy demand.
15. 这些发展趋势将在很大程度上取决于涉及下列各项因素的基本假定：经济增长的速度、全球人口增长情况、技术成本、以及各种主要能源来源的情况、以及其他类似的因素。
These trends depend very much on underlying assumptions about economic growth, global population, the costs of technologies and different primary energy sources, and other similar factors.
国际能源机构为此亦对一种“替代性政策”设想方案进行了分析，其中假定各国能够采取旨在提高工业使用能源的效率和以更无害环境的方式进行能源生产的政策。
IEA has therefore also analysed an alternative policy scenario which assumes that countries adopt policies to stimulate both the efficient use of energy and more environmentally-friendly energy production.
这一设想方案在很大程度上以各国政府目前正在考虑采取、或似应合理预计采取的一整套政策和措施能否得到切实和全面的实施。
This scenario is largely based on the full implementation of a set of policies and measures that Governments are currently considering or might reasonably be expected to adopt.
例如，这一替代性政策设想方案并不未审查各国政府通过大规模扩大可再生能源来源所发挥的作用或大幅改进能源终端使用效率来推动实行更为雄心勃勃的、旨在稳定大气中温室气体浓度的政策所产生的各种后果。
The alternative policy scenario does not examine, for example, the consequences of adoption by Governments of more ambitious policies aimed at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere by greatly expanding the role of renewable energy sources or improving energy end use efficiency.
与此相反，这一政策设想方案考虑的是旨在大幅加速发展中国家获得能源的方案所产生的各种后果。
Similarly, it does consider the implications of greatly accelerating energy access programmes in developing countries.
16. 这一替代性政策设想方案中得出的相关调查结论是，在投资总量几乎不变的情况下， 2030年时全球能源需求量有可能增加10％、同时可把人为温室气体排放量减少16％，实现这些目标的主要方式是把投资从能源生产部门转向研制各种高效使用能源的技术，其中许多技术研发工作都是针对需求方面开展的。
The interesting finding in the alternative policy scenario is that, with almost the same total investment, it is possible to reduce global energy demand by 10 per cent and anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by 16 per cent by 2030, mainly by shifting investments from energy production to energy efficiency technologies, many of them on the demand side.
17. 可通过实行更为雄心勃勃的政策实现进一步减少能源需求量和温室气体排放的目标。
Additional reductions in energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions can be obtained with more ambitious policies.
按照国际能源机构所说的一切照旧的预测方案中，对可再生能源生产部门的投资额将达到1.6万亿美元,而根据替代性政策设想方案，在此方面的投资额将会更大。
Already in the IEA business-as-usual projection, investments in renewable energy power production will amount to $1.6 trillion, with even greater investment predicted in the alternative policy scenario.
18. 无论如何，今后25年间全球能源需求量的近三分之二将会产生于发展中国家。
In any event, almost two thirds of the growth in global energy demand in the next 25 years will occur in developing regions, reflecting the rapid economic and population growth in many countries.
这将反映出许多国家的经济和人口的迅速增长情况。
In any event, almost two thirds of the growth in global energy demand in the next 25 years will occur in developing regions, reflecting the rapid economic and population growth in many countries.
到2030年时，发展中国家将在全球能源需求量中占较大的比例此同时－亦即与2002年的38％相对照，达到约48％，尽管其人均能源消费量与经合组织国家的人均消费量相比较仍然较低。
By 2030, developing countries will account for the major part of the global energy demand, some 48 per cent, compared to 38 per cent in 2002, although their per capita consumption will remain low compared with the average in OECD countries.
预计发展中国家中无法获得供电的人口比例将会减少，但这一时期内的人口增长将会抵消绝对增长所带来的好处:到2030年时，仍将有14亿民众无法获得供电，主要是在南亚和撒哈拉以南的非洲地区。
The percentage of people in developing countries without access to electricity is expected to decrease, but population growth will negate much of the absolute gain so that some 1.4 billion people will still remain without access to electricity in 2030, mainly in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
如果情况果然如此，则将很难在这些区域切实实现《千年宣言》中所订立的相关目标，特别是那些与减贫有关的目标。
If so, it will be very difficult to meet the goals of the Millennium Declaration in these regions, particularly those related to reducing poverty.
C. 贸易和投资
C.
Trade and investment
19. 随着对能源需求量的不断增加，将需要进行大规模投资。
The growing demand for energy will require massive investment.
在此方面所作的估算结果不尽相同，但大致的数字是，今后30年间需要在能源部门中投入约16万亿美元的资金，用以维持、更新或扩大能源部门的基础设施。
Estimates differ, but amounts in the order of $16 trillion must be invested in the energy sector over the next 30 years to maintain, replace, and expand infrastructure.
仅在电力部门，便将需要投入约10万亿美元的资金，约占总投资量的60％。
Approximately 60 per cent, or $10 trillion, is required for investments in the electricity sector alone.
这将相当于在过去30年间所投入的资金总额的3倍，同时亦反映出预计的对全球电力需求量将增长3倍的情况。
This is three times the amount invested in the last 30 years and reflects the expected doubling of global electricity demand.
投资格局将与日趋注重改进终端能源使用效率的政治重点略有不同，但资金需求量将保持大致相同的水平。
The investment pattern would differ somewhat with increased political emphasis on improving end-use energy efficiency, but the capital needs will remain at roughly the same level.
20. 如何调集和筹措这笔资金将是一项巨大挑战，特别是对各发展中国家和经济转型国家而言－这两类国家大约占总投资量的近一半。
Raising the capital will be a significant challenge, particularly in developing countries and countries with economies and transition, where almost half the investment is needed.
对这些区域的投资将会受到金融市场不完善、金融产品和机构机构欠缺等情况的影响,并将会在政治、信贷货币和经济诸方面面对较高的风险。
Investment in these regions is impeded by poorly developed financial markets, products and institutions, as well as high political, credit, currency and economic risks, the lack of local capacity to adapt technology and the lack of infrastructure to deliver services.
当地缺乏技术改造能力和缺乏提供各种相关服务的基础设施等也将是不利因素。
Investment in these regions is impeded by poorly developed financial markets, products and institutions, as well as high political, credit, currency and economic risks, the lack of local capacity to adapt technology and the lack of infrastructure to deliver services.
21. 国际能源机构所作的相关评估结果表明，尽管在未来数十年内化石燃料的供应情况在技术上将不会出现问题。
The IEA assessment indicates that, although availability of fossil fuels will not be a technical constraint in the coming decades, a view that is shared by a number of other projections, the geographical distribution of oil and gas reserves in particular will lead to a marked shift in terms of sources of energy.