（一）目前各方面情况显示，中国时局将要发展到一个新的阶段。
#§1.
All circumstances now show that the situation in China is about to enter a new stage of development.
这个新的阶段，即是全国范围的反帝反封建斗争发展到新的人民大革命的阶段。
#§ This new stage is one in which the country-wide struggle against imperialism and feudalism will develop into a great new people's revolution.
现在是它的前夜。
# § We are now on the eve of this revolution.
我党的任务是为争取这一高潮的到来及其胜利而斗争。
# § The task of our Party is to struggle for the advent of this high tide and its triumph .
（二）目前军事形势，已向有利于人民的方向发展。
#§2.
The military situation has now developed in a direction favourable to the people.
去年七月至今年一月的七个月作战，已歼灭蒋介石进犯解放区的正规军五十六个旅，平均每月歼敌八个旅；被歼灭的大量伪军和保安部队，被击溃的正规军，都未计算在内。
#§ In seven months of fighting, from last July to this January, we wiped out 56 brigades of Chiang Kai-shek's regular forces which invaded the Liberated Areas, a monthly average of 8 brigades, not counting the numerous puppet troops and the peace preservation corps which were wiped out and those of Chiang's regular forces which were routed.
蒋介石的攻势，在鲁南、鲁西、陕甘宁边区、平汉北段和南满等地虽然还在继续，但是比较去年秋季已经衰弱得多了。
#§ Although Chiang Kai-shek's offensive continues in southern and western Shantung, in the Shensi-Kansu-Ningsia Border Region, along the northern section of the Peiping-Hankow Railway and in southern Manchuria, it has become much feebler than it was last autumn.
蒋军兵力不敷分配，征兵不足规定数额，这同他的战线之广和兵员消耗之多，发生了严重的矛盾。
#§ Chiang Kai-shek's army does not have enough troops to dispose and cannot fulfil its conscription quotas; this fact is in serious contradiction with its extended battle lines and the enormous drain on its manpower.
蒋军士气日益下降。
# §The morale of Chiang's army is sinking lower every day.
最近在苏北、鲁南、鲁西、晋西等地几次作战中，许多蒋军部队士气的下降已到了很大的程度。
#§ During the recent fighting in northern Kiangsu, southern and western Shantung and western Shansi, the morale of many of Chiang's forces sank to a very low level.
我军已在几个战场上开始夺取了主动，蒋军则开始失去了主动。
#§ On several fronts our armies are beginning to seize the initiative, while Chiang Kai-shek's armies are beginning to lose it.
预料今后数月内可能达到歼灭蒋军连前共计一百个旅的目的。
# §We can foresee that in the next few months we may achieve the objective of wiping out a grand total of 100 of Chiang's brigades, including those previously destroyed.
蒋介石共有正规军步骑九十三个师（军），二百四十八个旅（师），一百九十一万六千人，伪军、警察、地方保安部队、交通警察部队、后勤部队和技术兵种等，都未计算在内。
# §Chiang Kai-shek has altogether 93 regular infantry and cavalry divisions (corps), composed of 248 brigades (divisions), totalling 1,916,000 men, not counting the puppet troops, police, local peace preservation corps, communications police corps, rear services and technical arms.
进攻解放区的为七十八个师（军），二百一十八个旅（师），一百七十一万三千人，约占蒋军正规军兵力百分之九十。
#§ The forces attacking the Liberated Areas number 78 divisions (corps), composed of 218 brigades (divisions), totalling 1,713,000 men, or about 90 per cent of Chiang Kai-shek's regular troops.
留在蒋管区后方的仅十五个师，三十个旅，二十万三千人，约占百分之十。
#§ Only 15 divisions, with 30 brigades, totalling 203,000 men, or about 10 per cent of the total, remain in the Kuomintang rear areas.
因此，蒋介石不可能再从他的后方调动很多有战斗力的军队向解放区进攻。
# §Therefore, Chiang Kai-shek can no longer send large combat-worthy reinforcements from his rear areas to attack the Liberated Areas.
进攻解放区的二百一十八个旅中，被我歼灭者已超过四分之一。
# §We have already wiped out more than a quarter of the 218 brigades attacking the Liberated Areas.
虽然有些部队在被歼灭后又以原番号补充恢复，但其战斗力很弱。
# §Although some have been replenished and restored under their original designations after having been wiped out, their combat effectiveness is very low.
我军如能于今后数月内，再歼其四十至五十个旅，连前共达一百个旅左右，则军事形势必将发生重大的变化。
# §If our armies can wipe out another 40 to 50 brigades in the next few months and bring the total up to about 100, there will be an important change in the military situation.
（三）同时，蒋介石区域的伟大的人民运动发展起来了。
#§3.
Meanwhile, a great people's movement is unfolding in the Kuomintang areas.
去年十一月三十日因国民党压迫摊贩而引起的上海市民骚动和去年十二月三十日因美军强奸中国女学生而引起的北平学生运动，标志着蒋管区人民斗争的新高涨。
#§ The riots of the people in Shanghai, which began on November 30 of last year as a result of the Kuomintang's persecution of the street vendors, and the student movement in Peiping, which began last December 30 as a result of the rape of a Chinese girl student by U.S. soldiers, both mark a new upsurge in the struggle of the people in the Chiang Kai-shek areas.
由北平开始的学生运动，已向全国各大城市发展，参加人数达数十万，超过“一二九”抗日学生运动的规模。
# §The student movement which began in Peiping has spread to other big cities all over the country, with hundreds of thousands taking part and on a larger scale than the December 9th Student Movement against Japanese imperialism.
（四）解放区人民解放军的胜利和蒋管区人民运动的发展，预示着中国新的反帝反封建斗争的人民大革命毫无疑义地将要到来，并可能取得胜利。
#§4.
The victories of the People's Liberation Army in the Liberated Areas and the development of the people's movement in the Kuomintang areas foretell that a great new people's revolution against imperialism and feudalism is surely approaching and can be victorious.
（五）这一形势，是在美国帝国主义及其走狗蒋介石代替日本帝国主义及其走狗汪精卫的地位，采取了变中国为美国殖民地的政策、发动内战的政策和加强法西斯独裁统治的政策的情况之下形成的。
#§5.
The circumstances in which this situation has arisen are that U.S. imperialism and its running dog Chiang Kai-shek have replaced Japanese imperialism and its running dog Wang Ching-wei and adopted the policies of turning China into a U.S. colony, launching a civil war and strengthening the fascist dictatorship.