1. 2004年，拉丁美洲和加勒比经济增长约5.8％，高于最佳估计，而该区域人均国内生产总值大约增长4.2％。
The Latin American and Caribbean economy grew by about 5.8 per cent in 2004, thereby outstripping the most optimistic forecasts, while the region's per capita gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by around 4.2 per cent.
2005年，国内生产总值预计大约增长4.5％；这一进一步增长将使人均国内生产总值比九十年代的平均增长大约高出12％，比1997年高6％之强。
In 2005, GDP growth is projected to come in at approximately 4.5 per cent; this further upturn in per capita GDP will raise it to about 12 per cent above the average for the 1990s and to more than 6 per cent above its 1997 level, which was around where it had hovered until 2004.
在2004年以前，增长一直大约维持在1997年的水平。
In 2005, GDP growth is projected to come in at approximately 4.5 per cent; this further upturn in per capita GDP will raise it to about 12 per cent above the average for the 1990s and to more than 6 per cent above its 1997 level, which was around where it had hovered until 2004.
二. 2003年至2004年该区域发展的突出特征
Prominent features of the region's growth in 2003-2004
2. 目前复苏不同于该区域经济历史上的其他事件的一个特征是，2004年，在国内生产总值增长的同时，国际收支经常账户连续第两年出现盈余，而且这二项的数额均高于前一年。
One of the characteristics of the current recovery that makes it stand out from other events in the region's economic history is that, for the second year in a row, GDP growth was coupled with a surplus on the balance-of-payments current account in 2004 and that both of these aggregates were higher than they were the year before.
过去，在国内生产总值稳步增长时，经常账户状况会恶化，而在经常账户的状况因出现贸易顺差而得到改善时，进口会因国内需求下降而出现紧缩。
In the past, when GDP was growing at a good pace, the current account was deteriorating, and when the current account was improving based on positive trade balances, this was because imports were contracting owing to slack domestic demand.
就整个区域而言，在过去20年中，只有三年是经常账户在国内生产总值增长超过2％的同时，出现盈余；其他两次是1987年和2000年。
A strengthening current account has been combined with GDP growth of over 2 per cent for the region as a whole in only three of the last 20 years; the other two cases were 1987 and 2000, but in neither of those two years was the increase in economic activity as strong as it was in 2004.1
但是那两年的经济活动都没有像2004年这样繁荣。
A strengthening current account has been combined with GDP growth of over 2 per cent for the region as a whole in only three of the last 20 years; the other two cases were 1987 and 2000, but in neither of those two years was the increase in economic activity as strong as it was in 2004.1
3. 第二个有关不同特征是，在国内生产总值急速增长的同时，该区域的资本在流出。
A second and related distinguishing trait is that the sharp increase in GDP occurred at a time when the region was registering capital outflows, which, given the surplus posted on the 2003 balance-of-payments financial account, signals a sizeable downturn in the net capital flows received by the region.
鉴于2003年国际收支金融账户出现盈余，资本流出意味着进入该区域的净额资本大幅减少。
A second and related distinguishing trait is that the sharp increase in GDP occurred at a time when the region was registering capital outflows, which, given the surplus posted on the 2003 balance-of-payments financial account, signals a sizeable downturn in the net capital flows received by the region.
以前，在国内生产总值增长的同时时，从未出现如此幅度的减少（它通常被视为资本外逃）（见图一）。
Decreases of this scale (usually regarded as constituting capital flight) have never before been seen in conjunction with an increase in GDP growth (see figure I).
但是，在过去两年，由于外贸部门情况良好，该区域在与世界其他地方的贸易中有结存，而国内生产总值的增长大部分与出口增加有关（见图二）。
In the last two years, however, the external sector's strength has enabled the region to build up a credit balance in its transactions with the rest of the world, and much of the upswing in the GDP growth rate was associated with the buoyancy of exports (see figure II).
4. 本国居民在世界其他地方积累资产（这本身就是资本外逃）在某种程度上抵销了经常账户的盈余。
The counterpart to the current account surplus was, to some extent, residents' accumulation of assets in the rest of the world (which itself can constitute a form of capital flight).
但是同时，该区域的一些国家减少了它们拖欠非本国居民的债务，从而减少了自己的负债额，且该区域的国际储备在增加。
At the same time, however, some countries of the region trimmed down their stock of liabilities with non-residents, thus scaling back their levels of indebtedness, and the region's international reserves were on the increase.
另外，与此同时，国家风险溢价呈下降趋势，正在接近历史最低点。
Furthermore, these events were accompanied by a downward trend in sovereign risk premiums, which are now approaching record lows.
因此，在资本净流出的同时，对区域金融资产的需求在增加。
Thus, the net outflow of capital coincided with an expanding demand for regional financial assets.
由于这是一个独特的情况组合，显然需要对目前局势进行分析，以便查明这种增长趋势的根本原因。
Given this unique combination of phenomena, the current situation clearly warrants analysis so that the factors underlying this growth trend can be identified.
图一 拉丁美洲和加勒比：经常账户余额的变动（按国内生产总值的百分比计算）和国内生产总值的增长
Figure I Latin America and the Caribbean: variation in the current account balance (as a percentage of GDP) and GDP growth
5. 自本十年开始以来，该区域的实际汇率在上升。
Figure II Latin America and the Caribbean: total supply and demand and annual growth rates
2 这种上升趋势（南美上升的幅度较高较大，而在某些中美洲国家和墨西哥，上升则不那么明显）致使可买卖货物的相对价格上扬，刺激人们增加可出口货物的供应，用此类货物替代进口货物，扩大出口活动。
Since the start of this decade, the region has been witnessing an increase in the real exchange rate.2 This upward trend (which has been steeper and stronger in South America, whereas in some of the Central American countries and Mexico, it was slower to take shape and has been somewhat less marked) has driven up the relative prices of tradable goods, thereby providing an incentive to expand exportable supply and hence to substitute such goods for imports and increase export activity.3
6. 不出所料，实际汇率上升产生的影响是，它一方面减少了收入，特别是工薪阶层的收入，因此减少了总开支（使可出口盈余扩大），另一方面，把钱用在国内生产上（因此减少了进口）。
As was to be expected, the increase in the real exchange rate had the effect, on the one hand, of diminishing income levels, especially in the case of wage earners, and thus reducing total expenditure (thereby causing the exportable surplus to expand) and, on the other, of redirecting expenditure towards domestic production (thereby reducing imports).
这似乎是对2002全年和2003年部分时间的情况的一个合理描述。
This is a plausible description of what occurred in 2002 and part of 2003, a period marked by very slow GDP growth and a hefty trade surplus that enabled the region to post a positive balance on its current account in 2003.
在这一期间，国内生产总值增长缓慢，出现大额贸易顺差，使该区域的经常账户在2003年出现盈余。
This is a plausible description of what occurred in 2002 and part of 2003, a period marked by very slow GDP growth and a hefty trade surplus that enabled the region to post a positive balance on its current account in 2003.
受前几年推行的稳定方案以及调整引发的衰退和失业的影响，相对价格的重新调整并没有产生任何严重的通货膨胀压力。
Owing to the effects of the stabilization programmes implemented in previous years and of the recession and unemployment triggered by the adjustment, the reconfiguration of relative prices did not generate any major inflationary pressures.