导言
Figure.
文件E/ESCAP/CPR(4)/3中所探讨的修改之后的千年发展目标监测框架在目标1之下提出了一个与就业相关的新指标，即“使包括妇女和青年在内的所有人实现充分和富有成效的就业并享有体面工作”，并对跟踪各国实现该指标所取得的进展提出四项新指数：(a) 就业人均国民总产值增长率，(b) 就业与人口之比，(c) 每日生活费不足1美元的就业人口比例以及(d) 拥有帐户和收入的家庭劳动者在总就业中的比例。
The revised MDG monitoring framework, discussed in document E/ESCAP/CPR(4)/3 introduces, under Goal 1, a new target relating to employment, “Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including for women and young people”, and four new indicators to track the progress made by countries towards achieving the target: (a) growth rate of GDP per person employed, (b) employment-to-population ratio, (c) proportion of people in employment living below $1 (PPP) per day and (d) proportion of own account and contributing family workers in total employment.
本文件描述了国际劳工局估算其中最后一项指数所正式使用的方法，并提供了一套新的全球和区域贫困劳动者估算值。
The present document describes the methodology officially used by the International Labour Office (ILO) to estimate the last of these indicators and presents an updated set of world and regional working poverty estimates.
根据贫困与就业之间关系的假设，国际劳工局定期公布通过宏观经济估算模型所产生的全球和区域贫困劳动者估算值。
ILO regularly publishes global and regional estimates of the working poor generated from a macroeconomic estimation model based on assumptions on the correlation between poverty and employment.
使用这些假设的原因是缺乏关于劳动力队伍中具体针对贫困与非贫困者的充分而可靠微观估算值。
The use of these assumptions is due to an insufficient number of reliable micro-derived estimates of the labour force characteristics of the poor versus the non-poor.
“宏观”方法主要是用于产生综合估算值，从而提供关于全世界不同区域贫困劳动者人数和比例的大趋势。
This “macro” methodology is designed primarily for producing aggregated estimates, in order to provide a broad representation of trends in the number and share of workers living in poverty in different regions of the world.
为了产生这些估算值，国际劳工局先通过经济计量模型产生国家一级的估算值，然后将其合并到区域和全球估算值中。
In order to produce these estimates, ILO generates country-level estimates through an econometric model and then aggregates these values up to the regional and global levels.
由于国家一级估算值的随机误差往往在合并过程中被抵消，因此综合估算值被认为比国家一级估算值更为可靠。
The aggregated estimates are assumed to be more reliable than country-level estimates because random country-level estimation errors would tend to cancel out during aggregation.
除了国家一级估算值可靠性较低之外，由于各国不具备汇编指数的方法，无法直接产生这些估算值。
In addition to the relative unreliability of the country-level estimates, these cannot be produced directly by countries, as the methodology for compiling the indicator is not available to them.
而这又反过来影响了国家对这一目标指数的监测。
This, in turn, hampers national monitoring of this particular Goal indicator.
考虑到对宏观做法的多种简化的假设和提供国家估算值方面存在的缺陷，本文件提出了几种备选方法，利用家庭调查微观数据来估算贫困劳动者。
Given the several simplifying assumptions of the macro approach and the shortcomings in providing national estimates, in the present document alternative methodologies are proposed that make use of household survey microdata for the estimation of the working poor.
这些方法便利国家一级能够获得更可靠的贫困劳动者估算值，同时又通过使国家统计机构直接计算贫困劳动者指数值而鼓励各国以更大的主人翁精神监测这项新的就业指标。
These methodologies allow more robust estimates to be obtained of the working poor at the country level and, at the same time, encourage greater ownership of countries in monitoring the new employment target as the working poor indicator values could be calculated directly by national statistical bodies.
文件第一节描述了国际劳工局为估算贫困劳动者的人数而逐渐开发的宏观模型。
Section I of the document describes the macro-based model developed progressively by ILO to estimate the number of the working poor.
第二节探讨通过使用宏观模型对1990-2015年之间全球和亚洲及太平洋区域贫困劳动者的趋势和预测。
Section II discusses trends and projections in working poverty in the world and in Asia and the Pacific that are obtained using the macro model for the period 1990 to 2015.
第三节介绍了产生贫困劳动者估算值的两种微观方法。
Section III presents two alternative and micro methodologies for producing working poverty estimates.
这一节还对菲律宾的宏观和微观方法得出的估算值作了比较。
The section includes a comparison of micro- and macro-derived estimates for the Philippines.
第四节提出了结论。
Section IV presents the conclusions.
贫困劳动者的定义是有工作但家庭总收入低于贫困线的个人。
The working poor are defined as those individuals who work, but nevertheless live in households whose total income is below the poverty line.
将某一国家贫困劳动者的总数除以总就业人数，计算出贫困劳动者的比例。
The total number of the working poor is divided by the total number of employed in a country to calculate the share of the working poor.
马吉德首次算出了1986年和1997年 这两个时间点每日生活费低于1美元这一国际贫困线的劳动者人数的全球估算值。
Majid produced the first global estimates of the number of workers living below the $1 a day international poverty line for two points in time, 1986 and 1997.
他的论文显示，在这一时期内，全世界贫困劳动者的人数略有下降，但在最低收入国家实际上有所上升。
His paper showed that over this period, the number of the working poor in the world had declined slightly, while it had actually increased in the lowest income countries.
马吉德的估算值是根据下列对贫困劳动者的分解而得出的：
Majid's estimates are based on the following decomposition of the working poor:
这里,
where,
POPpoor 是指处于就业年龄的贫困人口
POPpoor is the working-age poor population