联合国文件/第968部分 (共1000部分)

The magnitude of both child trafficking and commercial sexual exploitation in Africa cannot be accurately quantified because of lack of data, but it has been estimated that 50,000 children are in prostitution and pornography (ILO, 2006).

Children involved in commercial sex activities are often subjected to rape, physical and psychological abuse and starvation.

Incidences of unwanted pregnancies and sexually transmitted infections, including HIV/AIDS, are also high among these children.

Crime

Crime has become a serious social and economic problem in many African countries.

The death rate attributable to violence in Africa is estimated at 60.9 per 100,000 population.

This is over twice the global rate and substantially higher than for other regions (World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, 2004).

In addition, the more vulnerable groups account for a disproportionate part in the official statistics.

Indeed, Gun Free South Africa, an advocacy group, has stated that 12 per cent of gun death victims in 1998 were young women, and about 7 per cent of the victims were under the age of 17 (Fleshman, 2001).

According to the Nairobi Youth and Crime Survey, young offenders and ex-offenders interviewed said that the major offences they had been arrested for were theft, followed by assault and drug possession (United Nations Human Settlements Programme, 2002).

In addition, political instability and conflict are often the outcome of social exclusion, and the more vulnerable suffer the brunt of this phenomenon, which is underpinned by the 100 million illicit small arms in Africa.

For example, children recruited as soldiers are denied education and protection and are often unable to access essential health-care services, while those who are displaced, refugees or separated from their families face similar deprivations.

Conflict heightens the risk of children being exposed to abuse, violence and exploitation, with sexual violence often employed as a weapon of war.

Growth prospects for 2007 and medium-term outlook

Africa is expected to grow at a rate of 5.8 per cent in 2007, slightly higher than the rate of 5.7 per cent recorded in 2006 (figure 7).

Positive growth rates are projected for all subregions: North Africa (6.6 per cent), East Africa (6.0 per cent), Southern Africa (5.4 per cent), West Africa (4.9 per cent) and Central Africa (3.5 per cent).

Despite deceleration of growth in major industrial economies, global demand for African products, especially oil, minerals and agricultural commodities, is expected to remain steady owing to strong growth in emerging Asian economies, especially China.

Moreover, delivery of the promised aid and debt relief will allow African countries to boost expenditure in key sectors, including infrastructure and social services.

Consolidation of macroeconomic management will not only reduce inflation in the short run, but also contain long-term inflation expectations, which will encourage private investment.

A number of factors are likely to hinder growth in 2007 and subsequent years.

Economic growth in many countries will be compromised by the increasing spread of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, which undermines labour supply and labour productivity.

Lack of diversification of production and exports constitutes an important source of potential instability and vulnerability to shocks emanating from changes in commodity demand and prices, as well as unpredictable weather changes.

Inefficient public infrastructure and unreliable energy supply at the national level, as well as poor integration of transportation and energy networks at the regional level, will continue to undermine productivity and international competitiveness, ultimately slowing economic growth (ECA, 2006c).

Figure 7 Projected real GDP growth by region for 2007 (percentage)